These indicators will give you anywhere from a few days to a few months of warning that things are about to change drastically.
1) Interest rates on US Treasuries go up steeply, and/or suddenly
The definition of ‘defaulting’ on it’s debt means the US Gov’t isn’t able to pay the interest on the almost $16 trillion it owes. Currently interest rates are at all-time lows – as many homeowners are enjoying by re-financing their homes at lower rates. Interest on the debt is currently the smaller of the four biggest expenses the US Gov’t has. As interest rates rise, the interest expense will get bigger – and this will be very difficult for a Gov’t that is already deficit spending way beyond its means.
You want to keep an eye on the current rates on Treasuries for two reasons:
a) Increasing rates will require a debt laden Gov’t to barrow more and will accelerate inflation and the date of collapse. This is a 6-12 month red flag. As of today, rates are slowly rising although they are still very low.
b) A sudden and sustained spike in the interest rates indicates that there are fewer buyers of US debt. Without the ability to barrow more money or rollover the existing debt the US Gov’t will have to shut down or do desperate things like stealing from retirement plans or citizens bank accounts. Get your money out of the banks or markets immediately. This is a very severe red flag indicating only weeks before major financial crisis and economic collapse.
Here are two sites for monitoring Treasury interest rates. The first is my personal favorite. http://www.bankrate.com/rates/interest-rates/treasury.aspx (shows this week, month ago, year ago on short and long-term debt)
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=billrates (Selectable menus to see current and historical rates)
2) Price of oil goes above $120/barrel
Essentially everything on this planet depends on oil; food, transportation, heating & cooling, and basically every consumer item you can think of. The world economy cannot sustain high prices of oil without collapsing. We saw that very clearly in 2008 when the price of oil hit a high of $146/barrel in June, and by September of that year we were in a full blown financial crisis.
For the past several years, oil has been trading around the $90/barrel price. It is currently at about $102. While not yet in the danger zone, we need to watch this one more closely.
If the price of light sweet crude oil stays above $120/barrel then you have only a few months before a major financial crisis unfolds. The financial crisis of 2008 was ‘solved’ by atrocious US Gov’t spending of more than a trillion dollars/year. That particular solution won’t be available to use in the next crisis. Does ‘the powers that be’ have another card up their sleeve for the next financial crisis? I don’t know, but I assume the answer is “no”.
I keep an eye on crude oil prices at the Kitco.com site. Look on the left sidebar a bit lower on the page (I like to use the Kitco website as it has a good summary of other prices as gold, silver, US dollar index, etc.).:
3) Food Prices Predict Rioting And Civil Breakdown
There is a direct correlation between rioting and the cost of food. It is a very simple principle – when people can’t afford to eat, they revolt. One recent example is in 2010 food prices soared and reached a peak in February of 2011. The high cost of food is attributed to the upset that sparked a series of revolutions throughout the Arab world starting when Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in Tunisia in December 2010.
Those revolutions were predictable. Here is a detailed article with research and mathematical models of how food prices are related to rioting: http://www.growyourowngroceries.org/the-cause-of-riots-and-the-price-of-food/
The level of hunger and desperation in the Untied States has increased in recent years indicated by the increasing numbers of people on food stamps and increasing strain on local food banks. According to www.FeedingAmerica.org 1 in 6 Americans are dealing with hunger…. We are approaching conditions for civil unrest and revolt here in the Untied States.
The cost of food can rise for many reasons – massive crop failures, inflation, or market manipulation.
The simplest way to track increasing food costs is the UN FAO Food Price Index. The index had an all time high in Feb. 2011 at 237 and a rough guide is that when the index gets within 10% of the peak (213 is with 10%) then you should be on alert and keeping an eye on food prices. It is currently below the threshold at 209.3, but it is close. This current level bears keeping a close eye on.
If the index crosses into the 240’s and stays above that level, then the probability is very high you only have weeks or possibly months before widespread violence will break out world-wide.
Here is a link to the UN’s website where the food price index is available (Thanks to Jim Davis for the updated link):
http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
DIY Prepper: Click Here To Find The Perfect Survival Retreat
4) Category 5 hurricane hits Texas City/ Houston area.
Approximately 30% of all US oil refining is done in a small area called Texas City – which is also right near Houston. A category 5 hurricane will certainly cripple or destroy this much-needed fuel production. But even worse than the destruction of the refineries would be the loss of the hundreds of specialty machine shops, high-tech firms, research centers, and labs that are located in Houston. Without this vast support network, much of the capability for repairing the refineries will be lost.
Here is a list of oil refineries in the US if that helps. list of US refineries by state
A category 5 hurricane hitting these refineries will cripple diesel production. Without diesel, the vast just-in-time trucking system will come to a crawl. Food, fuel, and medicine are the three most crucial items trucked around in this county and all of these deliveries will be in very limited supply. For example, throughout most of America there is only about 4 days worth of food in inventory in the grocery stores. Everything else we commonly depend on such as delivery of medicines will also come to a crawl. Prices will skyrocket.
The US Military is a very large user of diesel, and will certainly have priority for usage in any kind of crisis.
Red Flag: if a category 5 hurricane hits the Houston area, you’ve only got days before rampant price increases and martial law breaks out.
5) EMP Disaster
EMP stands for electro-magnetic pulse. This is a strong burst of energy that has the net effect of destroying the electrical power grid. An EMP pulse can either be man made (i.e. terrorist induced) by exploding nuclear device(s) in the atmosphere above the US. Or such a pulse could occur naturally as an intense solar flare from the sun.
The net result is the same and there are studies by the US Gov’t that estimate the loss of human life to be 90% within a six month period.
If anytime the electrical power goes out, the first thing to do is determine the extent of the outage. Hopefully, it is simply a neighborhood, or perhaps city-wide, outage that is a temporary inconvenience.
Try using your phone to call around to see who else has been affected. If your phone works, most likely the entire system has not been destroyed, although there is a small possibility the phone system might work for a while with the backup power they have. Try using other battery operated electrical devices to see if they function. Especially radios – perhaps the one in your car. If you are getting radios stations with normal programming, then the disturbance is only minor and you can relax. If your radio doesn’t work at all, or you can’t get any radio stations across the dial, the condition is very grave. Keeping an AM radio with charged batteries in a ‘Faraday cage’ that protects the electronics from EMP pulse is a good idea. AM radio signals can travel extremely far and checking transmission from AM radio stations at night is a way of determining the range of destruction.
This protocol will give you awareness of the situation hours and days before those around you grasp the full extent of what is going on. This is hopefully a scenario that never happens as this will truly be the end of the world as you knew it.
Marjory Wildcraft is the author of the book “7 Shortcuts To Finding The Perfect Survival Retreat”. Click here to buy the book; http://www.RelocationShortcuts.com
Marjory focuses on offering education and information for skills that will be critical in the event of major collapse such as food, medicine, and defense. She is the creator of the video set “Grow Your Own Groceries” which teaches you how to grow food in a grid down situation. go to www.GrowYourOwnGroceries.com for more information on the video set.
Marjory Wildcraft is an Expedition Leader and Bioneer Blogger with The [Grow] Network, which is an online community that recognizes the wisdom of “homegrown food on every table.” Marjory has been featured as an expert on sustainable living by National Geographic, she is a speaker at Mother Earth News fairs, and is a returning guest on Coast to Coast AM. She is an author of several books, but is best known for her “Grow Your Own Groceries” video series, which is used by more than 300,000 homesteaders, survivalists, universities, and missionary organizations around the world.
COMMENTS(101)
Interesting post but one likely beyond the scope of the average citizen. Few follow such indicators. (I used to teach marketing and economics at CSU).
Closer to home it’s easy to follow WalMart and McDonald’s. Walmart sales are nearly dependent on government income cycles (welfare, food stamps, and other federal benefit checks). For most households government checks are exhausted by the 15th of the month and since most Americans rely heavily on two week paycheck cycles, revenues at Walmart reflect these cycles. This same cycle is reflected in fast food sales and the dollar menu is the most popular.
eBay too has become somewhat reflective, at least of the continuing downward cycle of the economy. Sales are down, average final selling prices are down too (due to a combination of factors: economy, more sellers than buyers, more complicated eBay rules, etc.)
Our economy is a paradox as it is no longer a true free market and oil prices are a major factor to price hikes everywhere, especially for food. Government sponsored inflation has seen the buying power of the dollar drop about 40% since 2005 but government stats are no longer accurate as their accounting standards would put most businesses in prison…Ironically, our biggest creditor, China is not doing well either. Indeed, the world, I believe, is on the edge of a major financial disaster.
Hi Bruce,
Well written post. Yes, I’ve forgotten about the Wal-Mart and McDonalds cycles. I’ve read that you can go into a Wal-Mart before the first of the month and see people lined up waiting for their Gov’t accounts to be re-charged the minute it turns midnight. People are that close to the wire.
Yes, we are very much in a collapse process and it is best to prepare as much as we can. Hey, have I got a video set for you… LOL.
How does one find the sales information for Wal Mart? the quarterly reports?
THERE IS A MAN RIGHT THERE IN TEXAS NAMED ALEX JONES WHO TALKS ABOUT ALL THESE THINGS ON HIS ALTERNATIVE NEWS PROGRAMS, CHECK OUT HIS WEBSITE AND LISTEN TO THE TRUE NEWS EVERY DAY, INFOWARS.COM I THINK YOU WILL LIKE HIM AND HIS IDEAS, ALL THE BEST, DALE
Hi Dale,
Yes, I’ve been listening to Alex for gosh, more than a decade. He will wake you up and scare the bejeezus out of you for sure.
Alex is ALWAYS on top of what is going on… George Nouri On Coast to Coast AM and Clyde Lewis on Ground Zero>>>
You know, I’ve never heard of Clyde Lewis and Ground Zero. I’ll have to check that out. Thanks Darryl
Also, John B. Well’s show, “Caravan to Midnight” is an excellent source for keeping you up-to-date with True news. He is always on top of it!! Alex Jones and John B. Wells have done interviews on each other’s shows. John used to host Coast to Coast on Saturday nights for a couple of years…but now has his own show you can subscribe to or you can catch him on youtube. His show is so, so much better than Coast to Coast. As much as you think Coast to Coast is giving you info, they still have a limit zone that they won’t go beyond. Caravan to Midnight is definitely a “no holds barred” program, making it immensely more valuable than Coast to Coast. It is like Alex Jones’ show!
Hi kelly,
Hey, I agree. I just did a show with John B. Was super fun. he invited me to be a regular – I’m excited. I love that man’s voice..
Although there’s a lot of good stuff there, Alex Jones is a bit over the top. He lumps Permaculture and climate change together with the New World Order and a conspiracy to purposely reduce population.
I think population is about to be reduced, but not by a secret cabal of financiers, whose endless-growth shell game is predicated on continued population growth. With reduced population will come deflation, which is absolutely deadly to debt holders like the US.
Na, good point there. Depopulation goes counter to ‘growth’.
I’ve been listening to Alex Jones for maybe 11 to 12 years, and he has evolved tremendously over that time. He continually tells his audience to eat organic food, now. He does have “loose lips” and often has to apologize when he misspeaks! However, I feel that he is an honest man who is working hard to wake people up, because he know that survival is cold comfort if the rest of humanity is living a nightmare.
On Permaculture – There are so many different types of people who study and work with Permaculture principles, that there is no way to categorize them. In Austin, Texas, where Alex lives, Permaculture carries a strong liberal stamp, and he equates that with Agenda 21, etc. In reality, Permaculture is clean of political ideas and all of us do what we like with what we have learned.
Alex Jones would alot more believable if he would stop the far out conspiracy “facts” it causes people to just write off everything he says.My wife won’t listen to him because he sounds too off the wall,I listen & sift through the garbage to find the truth.The same for Geo Noori he has 95% fantasy & some truth.The “liberal Progressives” do alot better with their lies because the news media repeats it so often the truth barely gets it’s shoes tied while lies have been held as truth for years.It’s too bad Alex doesn’t tone down a bunch. George Noori Just has his program for fantasies that’s his shtick.
Alex definitely has a tendency to sensationalize at times. I’m personally fond of Jack Spirko – The Survival Podcast. Good resource if you’re trying to be more self-sufficient and self-reliant. What’s the difference between those? Self sufficient is an ongoing thing; if you have a single solar panel, maybe you’re 2% self-sufficient on power. Self-reliant is the short term; if you have a working flashlight with good batteries and the power goes out, you’re self-reliant and not sitting in the dark hoping the lights come on before you stub your toe. Stored food makes you self-reliant if there’s a short-term shortage. Growing food makes you self-sufficient to some degree, even if it’s only one little tomato plant. Jack taught me that. The more self-sufficient you are, the less easy you are to control. The more self-reliant you are, the less helpless you’re likely to be in an emergency or just in general. Where I live, I always carry a mini-mag flashlight. It’s darn dark in the country when you’re trying to get the hen house closed up! 🙂
Hi Nemo, I also really prefer Jack over Alex. Listen to Alex long term hurts! Ouch. Jack is much more practical and easy going. Jack is mor focused on solutions…
I checked out the web site infowars.com and loved it. It is my new favorite news site to go too. Thank you for posting. I’d never found it if you hadn’t posted it on here.
Try TheSurvivalPodcast, instead of just Infowars. Both are important resources, but TSP balances out Infowars. Give it a listen.
Spelling error: It’s bOrrow, not bArrow
Sec.6 DOLLAR INDEX… Repair grammer in 2nd to last line
Thanx for your good work, Marjory!
The letter “O” in the word borrow is not capitalized…duh!
Leave our girl alone.
Nice job. I especially like the way you link the sites for the data to back up your claims.
FYI in item 1 the correct spelling should be ” borrow “.
For item 5, EMP there is a gov report here: http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf
the power could be out for 3 yrs! due to the custom transformers at all substations which are made overseas. go figure.
Thanks for all that you do, love your DVD’s and your articles!
Hi Rich,
Thanks so much for that link to the emp report. That was a surprisingly readable document… Basically we are completely screwed if an EMP happens.
I have a subscription to http://www.spaceweather.com that sends me text messages indicating the detection of significant solar flares. It is around $5/mo and you can get the alerts different ways – texts are most convenient for me. I have a PV system on my roof that is grid-tied. A strong solar flare similar to the one in the 1800’s could damage my system by sending extremely strong electrical pulses through the grid. So, if I get a msg that a X7-9 class solar flare has been detected, I have enough time to disconnect my system and save it.
Thanks for the space weather link. I’ll look into that.
I get Space Weather messages, forecasts and reports from: SWPC Product Subscription Service at no cost. Here is the subscription site: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov/LoginWebForm.aspx?ReturnUrl=%2fproductsubscriptionservice%2f
Stephen – If you check it out, let us know if your paid subscription is any more informative/useful.
Alex Jones would alot more believable if he would stop the far out conspiracy “facts” it causes people to just write off everything he says.My wife won’t listen to him because he sounds too off the wall,I listen & sift through the garbage to find the truth.The same for Geo Noori he has 95% fantasy & some truth.The “liberal Progressives” do alot better with their lies because the news media repeats it so often the truth barely gets it’s shoes tied while lies have been held as truth for years.It’s too bad Alex doesn’t tone down a bunch. George Noori Just has his program for fantasies that’s his shtick.
This is a question for Stephen w/the spaceweather.com sub. I thought that anything like electronics & solar panels had to be in a Faraday cage,because the electrical pulses are so strong they can enter equipment whether it is plugged in or not?I would like to know for sure what to do.
Marjory, excellent article and very timely. Sadly, most will not understand and will not prepare. You can lead a horse to water etc.
Keep up the very good work you do informing those who do understand.
We need you.
SO.MANY.CONFIRMATIONS. of all you’ve shared. From MANY different reliable sources not connected with each other. There is a PLANNED ECONOMIC COLLAPSE in waiting to correlate like toppling dominos with OPERATION THUNDERDOME: govt.planned attack on D.C. with actors composed of gun owners/constitutionalists/Chrisitan which will usher in Martial Law. PLANNED RING OF FIRE: govt. planned suit case nuclear bombs already deposited in high population cities in a “RING” around the U. S. waiting to be detonated at will. RUSSIAN/N.KOREA “super EMP” nuclear bomb attached to satelite coming in over N/S Poles to be detonated over Omaha knocking out ENTIRE U.S. POWER GRID. The “powers that be” are just waiting for perfect timing for this domino affect possibly with geophysical event storm/earthquake (which are also being controlled). It’s not a matter of “if” but “when”. Pray and prepare as God leads. He has had me preparing to live “off grid” for 30 years. Shalom blessings to you and your ministry, madelyn
First, you lose credibility when you misspell the key word in your title and intro sentence. The word is spelled “imminent” – two “i’s” (like what you need to watch for these red flags).
Second, you should stick with your strengths and write about horticulture, not economics.
Up your sweet bippy Scott. We come here to learn and gain other’s insight, not to get a spelling lesson.
Great article! I have recently purchased the dental dvd from you and am having trouble contacting the author to find out where to buy horsetail to brush my teeth? Do you have any recommendations where to buy this? As for your article, if you are familiar with Lindseywilliams.net, he mentions the importance of the derivatives market in the collapse. Once the derivatives market collapses, it is ALL over!!
Derivatives markets are markets that are based upon another market, which is known as the underlying market. Derivatives markets can be based upon almost any underlying market, including individual stock markets (e.g. the stock of company XYZ), stock indices (e.g. the Nasdaq 100 stock index), and currency markets (i.e. the forex markets).
Types of Derivatives Markets
Derivatives markets take many different forms, some of which are traded in the usual manner (i.e. the same as their underlying market), but some of which are traded quite differently (i.e. not the same as their underlying market). The following are the most often traded types of derivatives markets:
Futures Markets
Options Markets
Warrants Markets
Contract For Difference (CFD) Markets
Spread Betting
Trading Derivatives Markets
Of the above types of derivatives markets, futures markets and contract for difference markets are traded in the same manner as their underlying markets, but options markets and warrants markets are traded differently from their underlying markets. For example, futures markets are traded by making a long trade when the market is expected to move upwards, and a short trade when the market is expected to move downwards, whereas options markets can be traded by making either a long trade or a short trade when the market is expected to move upwards. Spread betting is different from both groups of derivatives markets because it is classified as gambling rather than trading, and therefore can be traded in several different forms (e.g. spread betting, binary betting, etc.).
Differences Between Derivatives Markets
A single underlying market usually has several different derivatives markets, which provides several choices for trading a particular market. For example, the FTSE 100 stock index can be traded via futures markets, options markets, warrants markets, contract for difference markets, and spread betting markets. The different derivatives markets for a single underlying market usually have different tick sizes, tick values, and margin requirements, which allows a single underlying market to be traded using a variety of different trading configurations (e.g. different amounts of risk, different amounts of trading capital, etc.).
The derivatives market is the financial market for derivatives, financial instruments like futures contracts or options, which are derived from other forms of assets.
The market can be divided into two, that for exchange-traded derivatives and that for over-the-counter derivatives. The legal nature of these products is very different as well as the way they are traded, though many market participants are active in both.
Hi Dan,
I just sent you an email with Doug Simons contact info – you can get horsetail herb from him directly (its good stuff!).
Regarding derivatives – yes, I totally understand the derivatives time bomb.
It is another serious threat and avenue for financial collapse.
Do you have any indicators to watch to know when it is happening? Once it starts we will see the crashing of the stock, commodity, and bond markets – hmmm, that in itself might be the red flag?
Do you have any indicators you watch to keep an eye on the derivatives market? Yes, it ws so many trillions – once it goes up we are all finished with currencies as we know them now.
Just read your 6 red flags that collapse is immanent article. I always read with an editor’s eye. I only have 3 possible corrections:
Barrow used twice for the word borrow.
Untied States for United States.
Does ‘the powers that be’ have another card…
Shouldn’t this be:
Do ‘the powers that be’ have another card…
That’s all.
Lance
My God get off the spelling and get the message???
Up your sweet bippy also Lance. If we wanted spelling and grammer lessons, we will go to your blog, but you as well as me knew what she was saying. We want Marjory’s insight.
Good article. Other than using spell check, ( i.e borrow not barrow ) I wouldn’t change much.
The links for reference are very good to have handy. Thanks. Ernie Kimble
“Barrow” is a word. Spell-check won’t flag it.
Remember, computer spelling correction could turn out to be your worst enema. 🙂
Hi Jan, You Make me laugh@
Hey, I am looking to hire someone to proof read and spell check for me. I know I am terrible…
My daughter is an excellent proof-reader. She has recently gotten into gardening and is very enthusiastic. I’m giving her your website info.
We could certain use proof reading help! Perhaps we could barter for services?
Excellent indicators. Also look for legislation the is designed to insulate our government leaders from the down turn.
Hi John,
whew, they are doing that all the time aren’t they? Someone recently told me that congress is exempt form the O’Bama Care requirements. And Congress has its own version of retirement so they don’t use Social Security.
Hi Marjory,
Great start! Here’s another item I would like to throw into the mix – Homelessness. We are not really paying attention to the growing numbers of homeless persons. For the most part they are completely dependent upon the resources of others for whatever food and shelter they acquire. Many of the homeless are responsible for crime as they cycle in and out of jails and prisons due to offenses ranging from shoplifting and breaking and entering to serious drug related or violent crimes. The government guidelines for counting homeless persons do not permit a truly accurate count. Many are considered too transient to be counted and a growing number are not counted because they are staying the night in residential housing of a friend or what was called a “crash house” in the 70s.
So, what’s the big deal here? With counts falling far below the actual numbers funding for services is being reduced or in many cases dropped altogether. People who are already predisposed to crime are being left to their own devices. We end up paying for this in two very costly ways. The first is obviously that the public becomes victim to rising crime rates and the dangers of violent crime. The second is that we are taxed to support the growing need for policing our neighborhoods which also diminishes our personal rights and freedoms and we are forced to support a prison system that already has a larger budget than our school systems.
At our Utah State Point In Time count in 2013 which was taken on January 30, 2013, we counted Homeless sheltered – Households with no children 1,557, households with at least one adult and minor 1,266, households with only minor children 12 (this category is very inaccurate due to the fact that many minor children are fleeing abuse and if found and counted will be returned to abusive households). The Unsheltered count was as follows – Households with no children 361, households with at least one adult and one minor 52, households with only minor children 1. People ought to look into the counts in their own states for as the numbers climb they are an indicator of impending social and economic collapse.
I am a volunteer Live Skills teacher at my county homeless shelter. My goal is to help the people there to become self sustaining and brake the cycle of recidivism in our jails. There were 47 in attendance at my last class. My husband and I also teach and encourage sustainable agriculture in our community. We are thankful for all the work that Marjory is doing and support her efforts.
Nora Wilson
Hi Marjory,
Great start! Here’s another item I would like to throw into the mix – Homelessness. We are not really paying attention to the growing numbers of homeless persons. For the most part they are completely dependent upon the resources of others for whatever food and shelter they acquire. Many of the homeless are responsible for crime as they cycle in and out of jails and prisons due to offenses ranging from shoplifting and breaking and entering to serious drug related or violent crimes. The government guidelines for counting homeless persons do not permit a truly accurate count. Many are considered too transient to be counted and a growing number are not counted because they are staying the night in residential housing of a friend or what was called a “crash house” in the 70s.
So, what’s the big deal here? With counts falling far below the actual numbers funding for services is being reduced or in many cases dropped altogether. People who are already predisposed to crime are being left to their own devices. We end up paying for this in two very costly ways. The first is obviously that the public becomes victim to rising crime rates and the dangers of violent crime. The second is that we are taxed to support the growing need for policing our neighborhoods which also diminishes our personal rights and freedoms and we are forced to support a prison system that already has a larger budget than our school systems.
At our Utah State Point In Time count in 2013 which was taken on January 30, 2013, we counted Homeless sheltered – Households with no children 1,557, households with at least one adult and minor 1,266, households with only minor children 12 (this category is very inaccurate due to the fact that many minor children are fleeing abuse and if found and counted will be returned to abusive households). The Unsheltered count was as follows – Households with no children 361, households with at least one adult and one minor 52, households with only minor children 1. People ought to look into the counts in their own states for as the numbers climb they are an indicator of impending social and economic collapse.
I am a volunteer Life Skills teacher at my county homeless shelter. My goal is to help the people there to become self sustaining and brake the cycle of recidivism in our jails. There were 47 in attendance at my last class. My husband and I also teach and encourage sustainable agriculture in our community. We are thankful for all the work that Marjory is doing and support her efforts.
Nora Wilson
Hi Nora,
Oh so good to hear from you. Thanks for your post and the work you are doing.
This summer is the year for solar flairs. Not all lines are shielded as this is not a mandatory law to do so. But many land-lines are and they will be the last to go down. I hear that the voltage spikes were so hi in the Carrington event that some Tellagraph workers got killed. Lets hope that in todays world we have voltage interrupters to help prevent problems. Some how I doubt we do.
It would be nice to have a Mageese (spell-check) and plow.
IMMINENT (Correct Spelling).
Great information, even if some of it is unfinished. I’ll certainly add these sites to my daily watch list.
I think this article is very informative, and I hope you will get the additional information you need to finish it. What I’m particularly impressed with is that it is a resource that can be periodically used to check “how things are going.” It gives the indicator danger points and gives us the sources that allow us to investigate where the indicators are at any point in time. This helps keep the article from becoming outdated.
I know you mentioned it was a draft, but in your final version, be sure that you use “borrow” instead of “barrow”.
By the way, I grew up in that tiny town of Texas City, but unfortunately can’t provide you with any diesel data. I now live about 65 miles north of there. I’ve lived in Galveston (Alicia – Landfall West End of Galveston 1983 115 mph Cat. 3), Texas City (Carla 1961 – Landfall Port O’Connor/Matagorda Island 145 mph, Cat 4), and my present residence (Ike – Landfall near Galveston 2008 110 mph Strong Cat. 2) during hurricanes. Each of these storms have wreaked such major destruction in the Galveston-Texas City-Houston area that I can’t imagine the impact of a Category 5 hurricane hitting the area. Let’s hope that we never have to experience that indicator!
Thanks for working on this article!
Oh, I just noticed that I should have said, “Each of these storms HAS wreaked such major destruction….” Also, I just noticed that you should be using “imminent” instead of “immanent.” Again, thanks for the good work!
Hi,
Yup, my husband pointed out that mis-spelling.
You know, I am thinking of putting up a little indicator box on the website so we can all keep a quick check on it. Some kind of widget thingy… Hah, hows that for technical. Anyone want to volunteer to maintain the indicator box and keep the numbers updated? You’ll be a mini-moderator on the site.
Marjory,
A very solid start to another great article. I’m looking forward to reading the finished version!
Regards,
GP
Thanks Greg.
Got any leads on that diesel refining capacity around Texas City? LOL. I am still looking for the specifics on that one..
I was reading you’re most current email on survival and a thought came to mind. If the first part of war (or a change in strength)is to divide and the second is to conquer, how would communication take place across the states among those of us in the United States who have been divided/separated by modern telecommunications failure (induced from within or out)for an indefinite amount of time at the moment of an EMP so as not to fall prey to the conquerors. Thank you and have a merry day.
Theresa,
A man made EMP attack on the US would be devastating for so many reasons, and yes, collapse of communications would certainly be a big part of it all. There really isn’t much we can do. Oh yes, HAM equipment and backup solar kit that is stored safely, but that may be more expensive or technical that a lot of people can pull off. My main focus is very simple – get to know your neighbors, build community, work within your family. It will all come down to local. Its all going to end up local anyway.
EMP or Solar flare,
Again, there was a time when we were pretty free from this problem and I see no reason why each city couldn’t be ready to produce its own power. Here’s the problem, We are energy hogs and it would be hard for us (average peraon) to produce the power we use just for our selfs. It would help to use less power comsymp. ie: I have two 9″ fans one AC and one DC the AC uses 90 watts and the DC uses 6 watts. Most any-thing can be done with DC power, even electric blankets. If some of ous are forced to to only resort to solar that we put in our windows it would make sense to have DC appliances. Here is a thread on that, it is sum up in the end.
http://garagelab.com/forum/topics/edison-vs-westinghouse?commentId=6484258%3AComment%3A23000&xg_source=msg_com_forum
Using DC is not a viable option for whole communities, especially larger cities, which is why we use the technology developed by Tesla instead. DC does not travel far enough. It caused numerous fires. Another issue at the time were the shod horses on the streets and street cars. The electricity running the street cars shocked the daylights out of those poor horses.
When electrical power was made available for rural dwellers, it was not very welcome by some who were afraid of the house fires from so many reports of that happening with DC. My dad’s grandmother was one of those. She absolutely, positively, undeniably wanted nothing to do with electricity in her house. They put electricity in over her objections. Her house did not burn because it was wired properly and they were using AC. She would have had no chance of having DC so far away from the city.
This is great. I was already aware of some of these points but they’re a lot easier to understand when they’re listed out like this in plain language. I will definitely share this with people when it’s finished.
Chase,
Thanks so much. I really, really appreciate your helping to spread the word.
I think the collapse is already in progress, it’s just a slow death spiral rather than a massive crash. That might still happen but I’ve long since stopped trying to pin an exact date on that. Economics is not an exact science, so all we have to go by is day-by-day data. Who would’ve thought that, in the midst of the Fed’s $80 BILLION/MONTH QE policy that gold and silver would crash the way it has? For a while I was thankful for the extra time to prepare further but now it seems as though the cost of living has risen so high that I have no extra capital to continue to invest in sustainable living projects. We’ll see what happens. Best of luck to you all.
Thank you Steve.
Yes, I too am amazed at just how long we have defied gravity – and grateful for each extra day.
Yes, we are in collapse. And yes, it will only get tougher. I pray we just keep stumbling downward versus some big drop-off.
This site is mostly dedicated to real, authentic, genuine information for managing this descent. Growing food, making medicine, defense, etc. And we mostly try to show you how do it without buying a lot of ‘stuff’.
spell check……………not barrow but “borrow money”
i know this is a draft. just trying to be helpful :^)
Thank you Kit,
I am a notoriously bad speller. You should see all the editing I do over and over again before I put something out.
the “barrow” brought to mind a wheelbarrow, and seemed appropriate enough for our Gov … was that a mistake?
Its a mistake Robert. I am notoriously bad speller… LOL
I warned you the article is in draft form…
YOUR ON THE RIGHT TRACK BASED ON THE DATA I HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING. KEEP IT UP. THE MORE VERIFIABLE SOURCES THE BETTER.
dollar index going down to far means the currency falling against all currencies. needs to be sustained that’s why two months. right now dollar index rising against all. JR
FINALLLLLLY!!!!
First, correlating specific events with approximate time lines. Crucial info and intelligence to make sound decisions. Even if they are not precise to the day or week or month, it gives me a ball park to work with last “minute” activities.
Second, someone not trying to get rich on scare tactics. I am sick of the daily load of emails all promising to give insider super secret vital information that will save millions of human lives, — but only if you buy their re-packaged, plagiarized reformulated regurgitated overpriced program. “because the gov. is going to ban this video”, which has been on the internet for umpteen billion years.
EMP: I would say you have hours, maybe 24-48 hours, before panic starts. Those with medical devices like pace makers and life sustaining machines, ICU’s, nursing homes will be dropping quickly. Then lots of heart attacks and strokes. Then lots of victims of looters and looters themselves. Then those who can’t replace life sustaining drugs like insulin. But that could take days, weeks and even months.
OTHER SHORT TIMELINE EVENTS: 8.0+ earthquake, anywhere. My number is arbitrary. Pick any that works for you. There are some charts, I think CUSEC’s website, showing the extent of damage from different severities in different geographic areas.
QUICK BUT UNLIKELY: if happen: i.e. super volcano, or nuclear strike. Tsunami from Canary Islands. Attack of the killer tomatoes.
A contagion or pandemic could be quick like in weeks or slower as in months. Depends on incubation time and method of spreading. See the new murs or mers virus. 63% death rate so far.
WWIII somewhere in the middle east. IDK, that one is hard to predict.
ANOTHER SHORT: Rioting and flash mobs after Zimmerman trial. With social media, twitter etc. the racists could be coordinated and organized across the country in every major metropolitan area. In a matter of days; martial law declared, all rights suspended and door to door confiscation of weapons. You think they have not already prepared for this? There is an article just this week, I found on “The Blaze” with all the tweets about killing white people (they use the C word which is just as offensive as the N word) if Zimmerman walks. BTW, the government is preparing for this as well. Shouldn’t we?
Same thing with a multiple city with multiple targets in each by all the sleeper cells we let in the southern border and unchecked airports and marinas. Saudi citizens come and go as they please under the current regime. INS does not even keep track if they report to school or move or overstay their student visas. (That was a story about 6 months ago.) NSA spies on 300 million AMERICAN Citizens, but not mosques? (That one is more recent.) The FBI, CIA, NSA and Russia all knew about the Boston bombers, (no I will not use their names) but did not follow them, could not use face recognition to ID them? (Multiple articles and documentation on this) Can you say dirty bombs? I knew you could. because there is nothing like a terrorist neighbor. Do you want to be his neighbor?
HI Pogo,
Thank you for your kind words regarding real, quality contnet. I know exactly what you are talking about in terms of the fear marketing tactics. Unfortunately it works – and very well too.
Thanks so much for you additonal points – yes, a major earthquake, tsunami.. really we are close to the breaking point so a big natural disaster won’t be as easily ‘absorbed’ like Katrina, or Ike.
The Zimmerman trial is also one to keep a very close eye on. That could very well be the tipping point for American people to riot on. That model in the article about the correlation between rioting and food prices indicated that August 2013 would be when rioting broke out in the US.
The model was surprisingly accurate in the past… But also listen to my interview with Fernando Aguierre speaking about the rioting in Argentina – you get used to it, and after a while it just becomes a nuisance.
Thanks so much for your comments. And please let others know about this site!
Thanks for the heads-up points.
One that I watch for our country is what is happening in the congress and states addressing following God’s rules or not (abortion, gay marriage, the attitude of (We can fix this)). God wants our attention and will use drastic measures to get it. After all He wants us with Him in heaven. It hurts Him to see us ignore His message and die in hell.
According to what has been legislated lately, I’d say we’re in for another hard time to wake us up.
The drought across the southern 2/3 of the country may be that. Should make food prices go up considerably.
Anita
you can Google “top 28 largest refineries in the US” and get a list. Texas City is number 6. Bay town, TX is number 1.
Hi iFerret,
I did just google the ‘top 28 US refineries” and essentially got a very similar list to the file I referenced in the article(s). The articles listed the refineries, but did not specifiy what products they produce. Essentailly, the query did no answer the question.
funny how much trouble I’ve been having getting an answer to this… sure wish I could remember where I first heard it.
This may be old news to many but worth reading again:
NORMALCY BIAS
The normalcy bias, or normality bias, refers to a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster occurring and its possible effects. This often results in situations where people fail to adequately prepare for a disaster, and on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations. The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since a disaster never has occurred then it never will occur. It also results in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. People also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation.
The Normalcy Bias condition is well known to psychologists and sociologists. It refers to a mental state of denial in which individuals enter into when facing a disaster or pending danger. Normalcy Bias leads people to underestimate and minimize both the possibility of a catastrophe actually happening, as well as its possible consequences to their health and safety.
The Normalcy Bias often results in situations where people fail to prepare for a likely and impending disaster. The Normalcy Bias leads people believe that since something has never happened before, that it never will happen. Therefore, like an infant with a security blanket we cling to our habitual, repetitive, and normal way of life, despite overwhelming proof that serious danger lies ahead.
Thank you Robert. It is true – even I have a difficult time believing the changes I forsee coming.
Great start! Even if you stopped now, it provides a critical service. Sadly – as some have pointed out – many Americans may choose to ignore this service … this education opportunity. Well, that’s their problem; all you can do is offer the service … no predictions – just a few common sense warnings.
@ Bruce David – “Interesting post but one likely beyond the scope of the average citizen.”
Please Bruce, let’s not dumb-down the American public any more than the Public Schools already have.
@ Scott – “… you should stick with your strengths and write about horticulture, not economics.”
Seriously Scott, Feeling a little threatened? Marjory announced at the beginning that this was a draft! I would think someone with your economic background would understand the significance of “a draft”. But instead, you announce that she lost all credibility because of a typo. Curiously, you had NO other comments, objections or arguments with the draft’s content. We’re potentially facing an economic collapse from several different sources – and you want to toss out the baby with the bath water. (… and the dumbing-down just continues)
@ Marjory RE the Food Stamps Programs: Last month the figure was 48.1 Million. This month, likely due to seasonal hiring, it did shrink to 47.8 Million (Source: US Department of Agriculture).
Sadly, this doesn’t even take into account a myriad of other programs like the “Food Shelves” and “Free & Reduced Lunch”, “Free & Reduced Breakfast”, even “Free & Reduced Dinner” complete with free supervision (daycare). And not just during the school year either; here in MN (a bit more liberal than TX), ALL of these “Free & Reduced meal” programs are extended throughout the Summer for the entire year!
As more and more families fall below the poverty level (like you said 1:7), I would certainly not want to withhold basic nutritional sustenance from any child. But when the SHTF, starvation will kick in VERY quickly. Parents will become very frustrated, then angry, then violent. And these emotions are fueled even more when they themselves are hungry and tired because of lack of rest, shelter or AC/Heating. Or when critical medications are unavailable for just a couple of days.
These are issues for EVERY American – including horticulturalists. Not just the economists — many of which are at least partially to blame for many of our problems.
Regarding GOLD: it is a tricky indicator at best. First of all, it’s international; so the rest of the world (especially China, India and Germany) have a great deal of influence over this indicator. Still, it is also true that the US remains in possession of a large % of the world’s GOLD. (Though it’s not in Fort Knox like many suspect – it’s held in various FEDERAL RESERVE banks. Ain’t that a kick in the head?) It is a pretty good bet that when the USD index goes down, GOLD goes up — and visa versa. For the last two years the USD has held pretty strong and GOLD struggled. Why? Because of the EU! Because of the PIIGS! Because Japan & China are printing fiat currency even faster than Ben Bernanke!
But this doesn’t mean the US isn’t facing an economic crash (at the very least, a credit bubble burst that will dwarf 2008). What it means is that this economic collapse WILL BE WORLD-WIDE. I think that’s why so many people use the term: eotWawki
If we can’t manage a few suicidal fanatic Muslims, just think how crazy, desperate and unpredictable they’ll become when food, water and oil are withheld?
Jeff,
Thanks so much for your reply.
I’ve been meaning to tell Scoot that prior to the ‘back to the land’ thing, I was a professional investor. I got out of structuring high yield real estate partnerships because I understood the collapse was coming – that was way back in 2000.
Back then I was also strongly recommending my friends and family to buy silver…
I am probably much better at managing money than growing food! LOL.
Oh, I have to agree with you about gold not being a good indicator – mostly because it is so highly manipulated and controlled. Most Americans would not believe me if you told them how controlled all of our ‘free markets’ are – most would be shocked to know the stock market is very well manipulated. But it is pretty obvious – some 70% or more of stock ownership is by extremely large investment houses which are ultimately controlled by a small handful of people. It is very much like the ownership and control of the media.
On the other hand, while it is not a good indicator, owning some precious metals is a good way of storing value.
Anyway, I really appreciate your comments. Thanks so much!
I agree completely, Marjory – About Gold & Silver; 30% of my portfolio is in PM’s; another 30% is NON-USD based. Still, as manipulated as Gold (and other markets are), I do watch them to assist in my market trading. But when it comes to a US Economic Crash, I don’t consider Gold as strong an indicator as the others that you’ve already covered.
Great Job! Thanks for All
Jeff,
Thanks so much. I really appreciate you comments.
Thanks for a great site, and so many good posts … This link will take you to Opec stats. Click on the “yearly” and you will see the 2008 spike of greedy traders (which collided with toxic mortgage banker greed so disastrously) has been somewhat moderated by a wider cartel. (The old monthly spike of ~$150 is no longer visible, only the average it added to)
http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/data_graphs/40.htm
I think oil and gas are finding a new place, and the people of earth are being robbed at the rate considered to be long-term sustainable banditry. While there could be spikes from breakouts of war, I think the cartels were “terribly inconvenienced” the last time they went too far and are moderating their banditry (it costs $3/barrel to get it out of the ground in Kuwait). I am writing this from a site in India this morning, working on yet another petro-chem expansion, and hoping to save enough to go back go gardening in the USA one fine day. Count your blessings, those who are in the USA, bad as it may seem on some days!
Wow! this was a hot forum,
I didn’t know where to share this, ” How to make a water well”. I know that I had no Idear so I thought I share it here. Later Shannon.
http://www.backwoodshome.com/articles2/mcdougall128.html
Greetings Marjory. Yes, it’s true most if not all of what you post about the impending collapse. But time lines are not very accurate. I’m inclined not to use them at all. Here’s how I figure it will transpire:
1. The clueless people who won’t prepare. They will be in a bad way.
2. The people who read stuff like this, so are knowledgeable, but still don’t prepare.
3. The people who are like number 2, and do a marginal job of preparing.
4. The hard-core preppers.
Am inclined to look a little at the dark side. Because when one has the goods, and is prepared, the masses are coming for your stuff. It’s only a matter of time, and it’s gonna be pretty ugly. History is there for the preppers to learn from. And it’s always pretty ugly. Just a thought.
Thanks for your articles.
Hi Crow,
Yes, I think you’ve written it out pretty well.
Hah, you make me think that the seventh red flag should be “when prepping goes mainstream”.
Defense and strategic relocation are very crucuial. It won’t be differ4ent in different places – and if you can move now, getting to a better location is a big part of prepping.
I am an avid reader of history on this subject and just now starting a project with lots of folks to read the book “Ersztz In The Confederacy” which speaks of the shortages and substitutions made in the South during the American Civil war. Pick up a copy and join in the conversation which will start in a week or two.
UPDATE AND A HEADS UP TO #1
I believe these two stories are a precurser to higher interest rates to boost sales.
The FED, meaning the Federal Reserve, a private bank, now owns over 2 trillion in US debt, meaning treasuries.
This was part of quantitative easing, which began in 2009. Prior to that, the FED only owned 475 billion, so this is over a four fold increase.
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/2001093000000-fed-s-ownership-us-debt-breaks-2t-first-timeThe rest if the
world is dumping treasuries. Guess who is buying?
There’s more to it also. You’d think that the FED would buy Treasuries direct from the US Treasury, right? Nope, they have bought a lot in the private sector, Goldman Sachs being a big one, which I think means some super rich insiders have been getting out…. It all seems very insider.
another bail out?
This is allowing certain people, institutions, and maybe countries, to get out of US Treasuries, which are of course at very low interest rates. I believe without this, prices of Treasuries would have gone down, and interest up. They call it quantitative (number) easing for reason.
this is not going to ease, and 3.2 Trillion would not be surprising.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-20/buyer-last-resort-guess-mystery-buyer-x
Yes, I think you are right on. Don’t be fooled with increasing economic figures based on the buying spree from people locking in low interest rates.
But the real issue is this; the US Gov’t is bankrupt. We are watching a huge, powerful, and dangerous entity die.
I know this sounds weird, but I hope it continues to be a slow death.
Thanks for your comments.
Good article.. But why the update? It used to be 6 red flags.. #6 I think was Dollar Index., I bookmarked the article for that info; if it goes below 72.52 for over a month, etc.
Please repost that critical info., &/or send me it.
I enjoy your newsletter & your work. Thanks.
Hey there M~Wildcraft
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You can contact me at my email. I also have an excellent idea I would loge to discuss with you.
I appreciate your care as a Mother for our Earth.
Thank you & so glad I tune in to Coast every day. I prayed to meet you &sure enough you live in our city. What a blessing that is!
Great article. My other red flags are (1) total govt debt exceeds GDP (check) and (2) treasuries selling at 6% (head for the hills!). On a different subject, I’ve been encouraged lately when I was invited to speak at the local Tea Party meeting about forming a volunteer Civil Defense group. With enough lead time we may be able to make a soft landing. Thank you for your good work. Esther
I’d like to know what medicinal medicine you have success in saving lives is that you mentioned on m. wildcraft posts. Thank you.
I frequently refer to this list from SurvivalBlog in 2008. Note that some of these have already happened. (Interesting, eh?)
=========
A sharp spike in the Federal Funds Rate
News of a failed Treasury auction, or news that Treasury rates have spiked
Overt talk of a US default by Asian or European bankers
Multiple (8+) simultaneous US bank failures on one Friday
Any large Northern Rock style bank runs in the US (with customers lined up on the streets)
A stock market drop of more than 1,200 points in one day
A large and sudden spike in inflation
Any suspension of US stock trading
Draconian new stock trading limits (for example any new “circuit breaker” rules, followed by news that the trading was halted because of the limits)
New restrictions on precious metals purchasing or new reporting requirements
New limits on moving funds outside the US
Any large derivatives trading collapses.(Because of disappearing counterparties or illiquidity.)
News that hundreds of hedge funds are suspending redemptions
News that many Money Market funds are dropping below $1.00 Net Asset Value (NAV)
The US Dollar Index (USDI) dropping below 68 for more than one full week of trading.
Any sudden large interest rate moves by the FOMC. (Up or down.)
Rioting in several metropolitan centers simultaneously.
Gold spiking past $1,500 per ounce
News that any major western power is no longer accepting US Dollars in payment for key commodities
News that any major trading partners are no longer rolling over the majority of their US Treasury paper
A closed session of the full congress that lasts a full day or longer.
The Treasury starts to extensively monetize debt.
The resignation of either the Treasury Secretary or the Federal Reserve Chairman.
Mel Gibson moves to Fiji 😉
Source: http://www.survivalblog.com/2008/09/letter_re_what_are_the_economi.html
Christopher,
that is an excellent list. Thanks for posting.
I used to get a kick out of all the dooms dayers [preppers] the same sort has and have been carrying on for so many lustrums/decades/centuries/millennium that if I didn’t know that there is a goodness in their hearts I’d have tuned them out long ago.
Each as a thing to share that would otherwise be lost as to farming or something. But the fact is that not one of you or I have been birthed here to live on and on and on as if immortal.
No we are here to learn what it is that we need to make part of ourselves so that we may [if we originated there {as not all who appear as we/I do are}] return to the realm of the ever-living as perpetual existing entities that are truly eternal. However it is that thing the is vacant in or void from out spirit consciousness that would demonstrate that we chose inequity [as that found in Lucifer if you will] and are comfortable in not being responsible for our very nature/character/living that we don’t learn it ingrain it and show or children what it is and those of amongst us who are our fellowman that which is necessary to loose and slip the surly bonds of earth once and for good. Lest you end up here counted amongst the dead, [dead betwixt the ears devoid of spirit] mindless dolts destined for the grave. Asshes to ashes
I wish you well.
May you know the blessing of discernment.
d’13
As a partial prepper I resonate to much of what you write about. You asked that if we wanted it, we should request more specific tips and information on trading, bartering, and home defense. As an elderly widow living in an apartment housing complex with a variety of neighbors, I feel especially vulnerable and I cannot afford to move. Any tips for people in my situation would be greatly appreciated!
Where is the actual article? I would like to read it, but all I can access are the comments on it.
I have the same comment as Donna, I cannot access the article itself. I would like to know what the 5 red flags are.
So wheres the article??
I can’t find the article either and would like to read it, please.
Amazing, here it is June 25th, 2016, and the world is still churning. But it does seem closer to the ‘end’, as you’ve suggested, one has only to read the latest statistics…… How long can we be ‘supported’ successfully with fresh paper money is the largest unknown, but a gold price like we see now above $1300/oz is a start. There’s a sense of ‘waiting’ in the air….. we’re all ‘waiting’ for something to happen I guess……. ‘Waiting for Godot?’ perhaps?
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